At St. Paul’s, we are situated in the heart of New Hampshire, one of the most critical states in the presidential election for its status as a swing state. Being a swing state means that winning over just a few unsure voters can mean victory of the state and of four crucial electoral college votes. Additionally, on Jan. 23, the state will hold the first true test for hopeful presidential candidates: the New Hampshire primary elections.
While the Iowa caucus technically happens first, the New Hampshire primary is the people’s first election in the cycle, making it the first gauge of any candidate’s polling power. So, a big win in New Hampshire can mean boosts in donations and interest –– at the same time, a big loss can take candidates out of the race.
Throughout December and into January, Republican candidates have campaigned heavily in the state. Leading up to the primaries, campaign intensity is only expected to increase. Here’s who to keep an eye out for in the coming weeks:
Nikki Haley (Rep)
In mid-December, former UN ambassador Haley received the support of Chris Sununu, New Hampshire governor. Since then, her popularity in the state has been on the rise. According to a Jan. 4 poll by The American Research Group, Haley has accumulated about 33 percent support in the state, while Former President Donald Trump has 37. In coming weeks, expect to see a heightened push from Haley’s campaign in New Hampshire, as her focus begins to shift from Iowa.
Ron DeSantis (Rep)
New Hampshire has been something of an afterthought for DeSantis. In recent weeks, his top priority has been Iowa, where a second-place result could give him an edge over Haley in other states. After the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis immediately traveled to South Carolina, making a bid in Nikki Haley’s home state. The South Carolina primary does not take place until late February, however; although the New Hampshire primary is on Jan. 23, it is clear that DeSantis has a focus on other states.
Donald Trump (Rep)
Winning the New Hampshire Republican primary is crucial for the Trump campaign. An early victory in the state could overshadow his opponents and give him a relatively easy path to the presidential nomination –– but a loss in New Hampshire could make his road to the nomination significantly rockier. So, expect to see Trump campaigning around New Hampshire in the coming weeks. Don’t expect to see him at the upcoming debates, though; instead, he will be live on Fox News in an attempt to draw attention away from his opponents.
Dean Phillips (Dem)
In the New Hampshire Democratic primary, Phillips hopes to turn his unlikely presidential bid into a serious candidacy. The race for Democratic nomination in New Hampshire is likely one between Phillips and Biden, whose name is not even on the ballot. The Biden campaign’s decision not to run in New Hampshire may hinder his presidential bid; voters must manually write in his name in their ballot instead of simply choosing it. In his long-shot bid for the New Hampshire nomination, Phillips hopes to put his name on the map.
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